AI risks: Malicious Actors

3 of the 24 risks sit in this group. Experts rate AI weapons & cyberattacks the most severe of them, at 21.0% probability of a catastrophic outcome by 2030, with a pragmatic-mitigations estimate of 11.9% — the difference between the two estimates is 9.1 points.

Grouping 4 from the MIT AI Risk Repository, used under CC BY 4.0.

Every risk under Malicious Actors

4.2AI weapons & cyberattacks21.0%Using AI systems to develop cyber weapons (e.g., coding cheaper, more effective malware), develop new or enhance existing weapons (e.g., Lethal Autonomous Weapons or CBRNE), or use weapons to cause mass harm.
4.1AI disinformation12.6%Using AI systems to conduct large-scale disinformation campaigns, malicious surveillance, or targeted and sophisticated automated censorship and propaganda, with the aim to manipulate political processes, public opinion and behavior.
4.3AI fraud & scams11.5%Using AI systems to gain a personal advantage over others such as through cheating, fraud, scams, blackmail or targeted manipulation of beliefs or behavior. Examples include AI-facilitated plagiarism for research or education, impersonating a trusted or fake individual for illegitimate financial benefit, or creating humiliating or sexual imagery.