AI and unemployment: what it is, and what’s happened in Australia
AI removes jobs, and it degrades the ones that remain — more monitoring, less discretion, worse pay — while routing the gains to whoever owns the systems. Australia’s exposure is unusual: a services-heavy economy with a large share of work in exactly the categories these systems perform first.
- Work removed faster than anything replaces it
- Jobs that survive get worse
- Gains go to whoever owns the systems
Increased inequality and decline in employment quality. Widespread use of AI increasing social and economic inequalities, such as by automating jobs, reducing the quality of employment, or producing exploitative dependencies between workers and their employers.
Definition and category 6.2 from the MIT AI Risk Repository, used under CC BY 4.0.
How experts rate it
With mitigations — 10.9%The difference between the two estimates — 6.2 points
Mean probability of a catastrophic outcome by 2030 — more than 1 million deaths, or more than USD 100 billion in financial loss, or comparable civilisation-scale intangible damage. Across 272 experts who took part. How this was measured
The study tabulates 5 of its 23 figures; this one was read from MIT's published chart on 18 August 2026.
Ranks 4 of 23 rated risks. This study published no interval for it, so the position of neighbouring risks is not meaningful. Experts put the difference at 6.2 percentage points.
Rank 4 of 23 by expert-rated severity, at 17.1%. See all 23 ranked
Evidence
Showing 11 of 11 evidence items
- Evidence
One in three Australian workers are at risk of job loss by 2030 from AI introduction by big corporate employers.
- Evidence
AI could create up to 200,000 jobs in Australia by 2030, but realising this requires proper skills planning and transition support.
- Evidence
The ACTU called for a 'worker-centred approach to the adoption and regulation of AI,' arguing that 'Workers' rights and voices should be embedded in every government and workplace response to AI.'
- Evidence
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated: 'Jobs are definitely going to go away, full stop' and 'AI is going to eliminate a lot of current jobs, and there will be classes of jobs that totally go away.'
- Evidence
Like horses displaced by automobiles, there might be few cognitive skills where humans remain more competent than AI alternatives—intellectual workers may struggle to reskill if AI surpasses human capabilities across many domains.
- Evidence
Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei told Axios that AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs and push unemployment to 10-20% within one to five years. In his own words: 'We, as the producers of this technology, have a duty and an obligation to be honest about what is coming. I don't think this is on people's radar.'
- Evidence
Unlike COVID-19 unemployment, AI displacement could push unemployment rates potentially exceeding 10% with no obvious path back to 'normal'.
- Evidence
Technology could displace 630,000 Australian workers by 2028, with construction, manufacturing, and transportation seeing 210,000 combined job losses.
- Public opinion
63% of Australians are worried about AI causing widespread job loss
2025 Survey Assessing Risks from Artificial Intelligence (SARA), University of Queensland
- Evidence
AI models doing 10% of economically valuable work would lead to the largest wealth shift in history—roughly $10 trillion annually moving from countries like Australia to AI companies in the US or China.
- Evidence
On Tech Council of Australia figures in our AI Policy White Paper, fast AI adoption would add $115 billion a year to Australia's economy against $45 billion at a slow pace — 2.6 times as much.
What's been called for
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What politicians have said
“If we get this right – if governments listen, if workers’ voices are at the centre – then AI can help us build an economy where expertise is widespread, middle-class jobs are plentiful, and the fair go is stronger than ever. The story of technology is not destiny. The future of AI is not written. It is ours to shape, and we should shape it so that work in the AI age is fairer, safer and more rewarding for all Australians.”
Andrew Leigh · · The Canberra Times - Opinion Piece
AI and unemployment
“This is a technology that has the potential to improve Australia’s productivity, to grow our economy, to benefit our workers and benefit our communities if we get it right.”
Andrew Charlton · · Sky News NewsDay
AI and unemployment
“The only way to make our people and workers and industries beneficiaries is if we treat AI as an enabler, not an enemy of what we want to see in our economy”
Jim Chalmers · · Treasury Ministers
AI and unemployment
“We can chart a middle course that makes our workers and our people and our industries beneficiaries not victims of technological change”
Jim Chalmers · · Treasury Ministers
AI and unemployment
What Australians say
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What people ask
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Think Australia should act?
Your MP and senators decide what Australia does about AI. A few lines in your own words about AI and unemployment is enough to tell them it matters to you.
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