AI race dynamics: what it is, and how experts rate it
AI developers or state-like actors competing in an AI 'race' by rapidly developing, deploying, and applying AI systems to maximize strategic or economic advantage, increasing the risk they release unsafe and error-prone systems.
Definition and category 6.4 from the MIT AI Risk Repository, used under CC BY 4.0.
How experts rate it
With mitigations — 7.3%The difference between the two estimates — 9.3 points
Mean probability of a catastrophic outcome by 2030 — more than 1 million deaths, or more than USD 100 billion in financial loss, or comparable civilisation-scale intangible damage. Across 272 experts who took part. How this was measured
This figure is tabulated in the study itself.
95% interval 12.0–21.6%. Risks with overlapping intervals are not reliably ranked against each other.
Ranks 6 of 23 rated risks. Experts put the difference at 9.3 percentage points.
Rank 6 of 23 by expert-rated severity, at 16.6%. See all 23 ranked
Evidence
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What's been called for
- Not in place
Work with other middle powers on AI
Called for by 3 organisations
Australia should work with other middle powers to reduce AI risks and limit the concentration of power in a small number of countries and companies.
What politicians have said
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What Australians say
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What people ask
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Think Australia should act?
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